Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
