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At an lavish exclusive event hosted at Raffles establishment on Whitehall this week, prominent figures of what is left of the Conservative party marked the Spectator’s annual political honors.

With the magazine’s editorial line still just about backing the Tories, even as they facing an existential crisis from Reform UK, it was unsurprising that much of the gossip at the champagne-fuelled event was about the security of the leader's position was at risk.

Party Rivalries Emerge at Awards

One senior figure, who unsuccessfully ran, couldn’t resist a dig during his speech targeting the obvious aspirations of his shadow cabinet colleague, Robert Jenrick – considered the main challenger.

“Am I after her job? Will I make a move against the leader to take over? Certainly not,” the veteran Tory cabinet minister told the laughing audience while commencing the awards ceremony.

Jenrick, who came second, has recently shifted alarmingly to the right to counter Reform's influence, responded with humor. His own manoeuvres are far from discreet.

Countdown to Leadership Contest Starts

Earlier this year, a dissatisfied MP set up a countdown clock online of the days left until Conservative rules allow rivals to mount a challenge. That clock reaches zero this weekend.

From then on, the Tory leader’s critics can formally request to trigger a contest. The rules changed last year raising the required support, meaning 30% of the party’s 119 MPs are now needed, previously just fifteen percent, creating a higher bar for those trying to oust her.

Possible Contenders and Backing

But could any putative rivals – Jenrick foremost among them – secure support from colleagues needed to initiate proceedings? Tory insiders point to the numbers who nominated him in the leadership contest: twenty-eight initially. “That forms the baseline,” they said.

Many exist of Tory MPs willing to share dissatisfaction with the leader: her approach, her decision-making, her ability to cut through. But, for the most part, they are hesitant regarding repeating a leadership overthrow at this time.

Breathing Space and Election Concerns

Several party members further think the leader's conference address at the autumn party conference, announcing a policy of abolishing stamp duty for main residences, secured her temporary relief.

“We might not be happy with the current leadership but we’ll be very careful regarding a change. Voters already perceive we engage in internal conflicts. We don’t need to give them any more evidence of that,” an anonymous legislator stated.

This doesn't mean the plotting is not under way. “The leader has until spring. Upcoming council polls are going to be cataclysmic for the party. Nobody is going to want to take over before that and have to own the result. However, post-elections, we will need somebody who can take us in a new direction,” a frontbench source said.

Survey Figures and Voter Perception

The polls already suggest the leader has gained minimal ground among voters in the past twelve months and that she has fallen in terms of her personal ratings. With a negative score, she is less popular than Jenrick (-16) and Mel Stride (-21), per recent polling.

Data from YouGov also shows that the leader has persuaded just one in eight voters she is a prime minister in waiting. However, the picture is better with party supporters, with 54% saying they approve of her performance in her role, and only 30% saying she should not lead into the national campaign.

Future Scenarios and Internal Dynamics

But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, a general agreement exists among the MPs that Badenoch will not be the one to lead the party into the next election.

The main division is whether it would better to replace her in May and have a chance at stopping Reform’s momentum – or leave it until closer to the general election if Reform falters, and public receptiveness improves to listen to the Tories again.

It is no secret that Jenrick thinks he is the right candidate. But his allies say he won't act immediately, and is among those who thinks they should wait until May.

Other Candidates and Strategies

Some speculate that the party’s potential saviour may end up being somebody less prominent figures (the shadow climate secretary is sometimes suggested) or a member of the new intake without strong associations to previous governments.

Cleverly, who came third, is also cited as a potentially unifying figure, remaining reserved. Supporters indicate he thinks there is no alternative than current leadership, since a new leader immediately would face greater challenges.

Should a race begin, there would undoubtedly be those urging Cleverly to stand, and he might reconsider another attempt. Several moderate legislators are organizing opposition efforts to block the frontrunner leader in any eventual contest.

Conservative Shift and Political Calculations

A well-connected Tory warned how the “energy is all on the right” both inside and outside the party, mentioning names like Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “It is a chance for James as he has the stature and the relationship with members, while others oppose Jenrick completely.”

“Quite a lot of minds are on the need for a pact with the rival party at some stage. During the votes on assisted suicide and decriminalising abortion generated significant calls for expulsion of dissenters and Reform’s private messaging suggests Liberal Democrat sympathizers must go. This advantages in Robert’s favour a bit.”

Yet another source noted: “Jenrick winning is not uncertain. We could have a strong competition between Jenrick and another – Cleverly, Stride. The idea that the rightwing candidate always wins the membership is not necessarily the case.”