Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.