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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.